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Opining on Skate Canada: Fernandez and why he can beat Chan
Another Skate Canada is done and with that, we are a third of the way through the Grand Prix series this season. We’ve hit upon the importance of the quad this season in the men’s event. The other big revelation in the men’s competition at Skate Canada was the breakthrough of Javier Fernandez.
Fernandez makes his mark.
I don’t know what it was, really, but there was something about the way that Fernandez was skating during the practices and the warmup right before his short program that completely made me do a 180 on his chances at Skate Canada. He proved at the competition that he’s the real deal, and the switch from Nikolai Morozov to Brian Orser will likely be viewed in hindsight as the best thing he’s ever done for his career.
Obviously, this was one competition (and we should remember that his debut the season at Nebelhorn was not nearly as successful, as he finished fourth in a much less impressive field of skaters), but I don’t see him as a one-hit wonder.
And as of right now, Fernandez is the only skater who has any chance at beating a clean Patrick Chan in the free skate. Yes, potentially crazy statement, I know – but hear me out. It has nothing to do with the fact that they were only three points apart at Skate Canada, since, overall, Fernandez skated better than Chan did. But here’s why:
As they currently stand, both skaters have the same technical content in the short, so the advantage would go to Chan because his PCS will certainly be stronger than that of Fernandez. But the technical side is a different story in the free skate. Chan has two quad toes and seven triples (potentially eight) and a jumps-only base value of 63.45 (potentially 67.96 if he adds another triple toe to make eight triples). Fernandez has a quad toe, a quad salchow, and eight triples, giving him a jumps-only base value of 71.76. Both skaters can add another double toe or double loop for a three-jump combo, but those two cancel themselves out. Fernandez has the advantage because he 1) does two triple axels to Chan’s one, and 2) his quad sal is worth just a tad more than Chan’s second quad toe, and 3) he puts all three combos in the second half of his program). That’s a four-point differential, all else equal.
Fernandez is the only skater right now who has the technical content to best Chan in the free skate *and* is close enough to Chan in PCS for them to be equalized. That said, Chan’s GOEs are likely going to be higher than that of Fernandez. Plus, Chan has been talking about adding his only quad sal to his free skate. But as far as I can tell, Fernandez is the only one who could even come close to a clean Chan in the free skate. For everyone else in the world, having only one quad just means that the ladder is that much higher to climb, and no one else at this moment is getting higher PCSs than Chan is.
That said, we’ve seen that Chan hasn’t been perfect in all his jumps this season – but neither has Fernandez. But had Fernandez not fallen on his first triple axel, he would have been the Skate Canada champ (even with a doubled triple loop later in his program). And if you’re Patrick Chan, that’s probably something that doesn’t make you feel all that secure anymore.
Japan’s great hope.
They have conquered the singles disciplines, but the Japanese skaters have never been particularly good at either pairs or dance – until now. Narumi Takahashi and Mervin Tran have all the signs of a great pair. They move superbly on the ice, they skate with great chemistry, the thing they are missing is consistent technical elements. Boy, if you could just combine their feel of the ice with the technical prowess of their contemporaries, Wenjing Sui and Cong Han, then you have yourself an unbeatable super pair.
Speaking of Sui and Han, they have unfortunately not made much progress since their rookie season. Sure, they’ve got the big elements, but they are skating pretty similarly junior-ish as they were last season. Keeping that short program didn’t help, and I don’t think skating again on the Junior Grand Prix was helping them either. Yeah, it was a lot of competition time, but they were up against teams who don’t hold a candle against the ones they are up against on the senior ranks. Takahashi and Tran have lapped them in the maturity department already.